Investment Outlook

 

Economic Outlook Highlights

April 2018     |  Economic and Financial Outlook Highlights   (PDF/New Window)
April 2018    |  Economic and Financial Outlook Highlights  (PDF/New Window) April 2018 | Economic and Financial Outlook Highlights
Deferred business spending and recent investment-oriented tax cuts will continue to reinforce a typical late-cycle rotation toward investment-led growth during the balance of the year. The consensus second-quarter growth forecast is centering on 2.8%-3% early in the period, up from the first quarter's better-than-expected 2.3% rate. Solid gains in inflation-adjusted income and profits, rising operating rates and job-market confidence are among spending's drivers supporting second-half growth close to its second-quarter pace during the latter part of the year, out-weighing slower growth abroad, plus a squeeze on housing affordability and household wealth.
View an archive of Economic Outlook Highlights, brief summaries of the economic and financial market outlook along with issues affecting stocks and bonds.


Briefings and Commentaries

June 29, 2018 – Market Comment (PDF/New Window)
June 29, 2018 | Market Comment (PDF/New Window) June 29, 2018 | Market Comment
Better than it felt. Stocks overcame policy and geo-political anxieties, keying, instead on still solid economic and earnings fundamentals in chalking up a respectable, front-loaded return of 3.4% on the quarter. Punctuating the second quarter's narrow rally was the near-45% share of the second quarter's rise by the benchmark's top five perform¬ers—all so-called FANG tech / Amazon.com companies—compared to about a 25% share of the gain in last year's fourth quarter and for the entire year. The spring period went out like a lamb, suffering back-to-back weekly declines on trade protectionism and its fallout that left June's total return at just 0.6%. Oil prices, trade policy, and the Fed all had a hand in shaping performance during the period, propelling energy stocks to the top spot during the opening months on rising oil prices, whipsawing interest-sensitive sectors on rising, then falling rates and weighing on trade-sensitive industrials and, ultimately, tech with a trade-policy soap opera. Tech's growing share of the cap-weighted S&P 500 is changing the face of an increasingly NASDAQ-like benchmark, in the process adding to its sensitivity to pro-tectionism both through tech's high dependence on foreign-based revenue and through gathering restrictions on China's access to cutting-edge technology.
View an archive of briefings and commentaries that provide detailed analyses of the current economic climate and investment conditions.

Gary Schlossberg

Senior Economist

Gary SchlossbergAs senior economist, Gary Schlossberg is responsible for assessing the economic environment and providing input to the equity and fixed-income portfolio management teams at Wells Capital Management.

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