Investment Outlook

 

Economic Outlook Highlights

September 2018     |  Economic and Financial Outlook Highlights   (PDF/New Window)
September 2018    |  Economic and Financial Outlook Highlights  (PDF/New Window) September 2018 | Economic and Financial Outlook Highlights
Weakening housing and foreign trade are in the vanguard of a shift to more moderate 2.5%–3.5% growth, reinforced in the coming months by a wind-down of fiscal stimulus, rising oil costs, plus trade protectionism’s dampening effect on the growth of world trade and U.S. exports.
View an archive of Economic Outlook Highlights, brief summaries of the economic and financial market outlook along with issues affecting stocks and bonds.


Briefings and Commentaries

October 1, 2018 – Market Comment (PDF/New Window)
October 1, 2018 | Market Comment (PDF/New Window) October 1, 2018 | Market Comment
Fed riven, Fed driven. U.S. stocks are on a roll coming off the best quarter for the S&P 500 Index since late 2013 in a rally supercharged by news of a North American Free Trade Agreement replacement agreement raising hopes for an early end to the trade wars with China. Bedrock support for stocks and other risk assets also is coming from ongoing optimism over the economic and earnings outlook propelling the S&P 500 Index’s valuation to a 7-month high of over 17 times forecasted earnings during the next 12 months, 15.5% above its long-term average. Investors have shrugged off worries over extended interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed), keying, instead, on improving financial stress indices (based on risk premiums and market volatility) approaching those during the late-January melt-up on the eve of the market’s correction. Yields in the final week of the third quarter steadied enough to support a first gain across the bond market in over a month, paced by foreign developed and emerging market securities and, here in the U.S., by investment-grade corporate issues. It was the rebound in emerging market debt issues that led the rise in a narrow group of risk assets to a record high against their safe-haven counterparts as the quarter came to an end, overcoming slippage in U.S. stocks.
View an archive of briefings and commentaries that provide detailed analyses of the current economic climate and investment conditions.

Gary Schlossberg

Senior Economist

Gary SchlossbergAs senior economist, Gary Schlossberg is responsible for assessing the economic environment and providing input to the equity and fixed-income portfolio management teams at Wells Capital Management.

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